With unseasonal warmer temps here in Key West the chance of tarpon does exist. We have water temps in the middle 70’s and South East winds. I have seen Key West harbor turn on to a great tarpon fishing bite when these conditions prevail.
That said.. The slightest cold front or Nw to NE winds will shut it down like a switch.
Best bet is to come here and consider the possibility of catching a tarpon a bonus and enjoy the rest of our fishery..